Note that I have not included predictions for every single category, just the ones for which I have seen most, if not all of the nominees. The documentary and short film categories won't be in here as such, and neither will Best Foreign Film which sucks because I've heard amazing things about Leviathan and I really want to see it.
Welp, here we go.
Best Picture
Being the "most important" award, this is always a tight category, and one where it's sometimes all but impossible to predict the winner with any certainty. Last year I thought Wolf of Wall Street was going to take it because it's a masterpiece and Martin Scorsese is, well, Martin Freaking Scorsese. But sure enough, 12 Years A Slave came in and snagged it. Deserving film I'll admit, 12 Years was riveting and powerful (I cried) but I was totally off base in my prediction (my second pick was the phenomenal Nebraska). Anyways, for this year I am calling:
Winner: Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Pretty good group competing for Best Picture this year but in my mind Boyhood is the clear winner for this one. It's simply a masterpiece. The concept is not as original as most people believe (Truffaut did it over the span of a few decades and several films with Jean-Pierre Leaud, beginning with The 400 Blows) but it is incredibly well executed and it gives the film a lifelike quality that would be impossible to replicate through other means. Linklater has always been great at his portrayals of the mundane, "normal" lives of his characters (Slacker, Dazed and Confused) but this is so much more ambitious and epic in scale. In seeing this film, we literally watch a child grow up into a young man before our eyes. It's technically fantastic and well cast, acted and scripted, but the aspects of this film that stuck with me the most were its all-encompassing totality and how relatable it was for me on a personal level. The references to events of the early 2000s, year-appropriate music, movies, fashion and slang brought me back to my adolescence, and even though I was watching main character Mason's childhood I couldn't help but be brought back to my own. Not many films have ever tackled adolescence and the process of growing up with such intimacy and emotional power, and Boyhood does precisely that. I feel as if this film is destined to become a classic, and will always be considered one of the greatest movies about childhood, and that's why I think it deserves Best Picture.
Second Prediction: Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance (Alejandro G. Innaritu)
I love love love love LOVE this movie. If it wins over Boyhood I am totally cool with that because it is SO GOOD. I think Birdman came at a really good time. A lot has already been written about it already but the aspect of it which I thought was particularly relevant and culturally important was its investigation of celebrity culture and the effects of fame (or loss thereof) on the individual. Michael Keaton is fantastic as a washed-up actor who tries to save his career by putting on a stage show, and chaos ensues, both outer and inner, as he struggles with other actors and with his own questionable sanity. Around Keaton is a superb supporting cast (Edward Norton and Emma Stone are both particularly great) and the script is full of blistering, cataclysmic arguments and hilariously narcissistic one-liners from Norton who plays a temperamental actor prone to violent outbursts. It's comical, profound and insane all at the same time, and much has been made of its technical innovations. Director Innaritu did a remarkable job structuring the film so it appears as if the entire movie is one continuous long take. In reality it is a collection of long takes strung together by clever, unobtrusive editing that can pass completely unnoticed by those not paying attention to Innaritu's tricks. It's a smart satire that can appear pretentious but is anything but, the only thing I don't like about it is the fact that dozens of films in the future are inevitably going to try to copy it and do a terrible job. Also, Naomi Watts. 10/10.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
I swear if Bradley Cooper wins this I will personally burn Hollywood to the ground (not really, but I will most definitely be pissed). Yeah, he's talented but every single one of the other nominees this year deserves it more than him. Daniel Day-Lewis isn't competing this year so it's tough to say who's going to win this one for sure, but I certainly know who I want to win, and I DEFINITELY know who should win.
Winner: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Of all the actors competing for this award, I think Eddie Redmayne's role was far and away the most difficult. Actors in biopics often get nominated for Best Actor, which is cool, but I don't know if I've ever seen someone completely inhabit their real-life subject as well as Redmayne did in this film. I suppose there are advantages to playing someone who is still alive, as there are more resources for an actor to draw on, but playing Stephen Hawking in the first place is tremendously difficult, as the physical requirement of it alone is daunting. Redmayne portrays Hawking at every stage of his illness with equal aptitude and emotional electricity, and his chemistry with Best Actress nominated Felicity Jones is phenomenal. From perfect health to severe disability, this is an astounding performance and a worthy tribute to a man who rose above his illness to become one of the greatest scientists ever, and one of the most brilliant and respected people on the planet. He's earned this award. Also, shout out to Steve Carell and his fake nose who also was great.
Second Prediction: Beneficial Cucumberpatch (The Imitation Game)
I've never really been sold on this guy. Everyone seems to think he's some kind of revolutionary actor who's mega-talented and steals the show in everything he shows up in. No, Benedict, you did not make Desolation of Smaug great with your 5 minutes of voice acting alone. And no, Benedict, you did not make Star Trek Into Darkness (Dumbness) anything better than absolutely terrible by being cast as Khan (seriously, why?). But damn, after seeing this I gotta admit that this dude can ACT. Another actor cast in a biopic nominated for Best Actor that does an incredible job with his subject. Crumpetscratch plays Alan Turing, the mathematical genius who built one of the first computers to crack a German code and drastically shorten World War II. Turing was brilliant, emotionally unstable and famously homosexual, and Crimpyswitch puts it all on the table to play all these sides of him well. The massive intellectual gulf between Turing and the people surrounding him is communicated particularly effectively, and post-war Turing who is being chemically castrated as punishment for being gay in England at the time is excruciatingly sad. I had never really seen the emotional range that Cabbagepunch possesses before watching this movie, so I'm looking forward to seeing what he does next. Still though I think Eddie Redmayne deserves it just a bit more.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
I must admit right off the bat that I haven't seen all of the nominees for this award this year. I tried to go see Still Alice the other night but the theatre had been overrun by a horde of old people and I couldn't get in. Sorry Julianne Moore, I'm sure if I had seen it you would have been a frontrunner. Anyways, I'm going to base this off of the films I have seen. Like with Best Actor, it's tough to predict this year because Meryl Streep isn't nominated. Like Daniel Day-Lewis, she (usually deservingly) wins everything. But even though I haven't seen all the performances nominated, there's still some competition here and it's a tough choice.
Winner: Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
I haven't seen her act this well since Walk the Line. In Wild, Reese Witherspoon plays a divorced, recently drug-addicted woman who decides to hike a 1200 mile trail to "find something within herself" and move past her failed relationships and destructive behaviour. She doesn't have much experience hiking, and faces constant challenges and struggles on her journey. Lots of things go wrong for her, and she has to find it in herself to carry on and finish what she started. It's a very transitional movie, Witherspoon's character is fundamentally transformed over the course of the film. Roles like this are pretty tricky because it's difficult to make the audience actually believe that the character has changed, especially in films such as this where there isn't a ton of dialogue (except in the many flashback scenes). But she pulls it off nicely, the physically demanding nature of the role is also handled really well by Witherspoon. She really captures the mental and physical toll that a journey like this can take on a person, and the cost of mistakes and poor planning. It's very intense, both emotionally and physically. I feel like acting in a film like this can really take a lot out of an actor/actress, and it seems like Witherspoon gave it her all.
Second Prediction: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
I'm amazed Gone Girl didn't get nominated for more awards, I thought it would compete for Best Picture for sure. Nevertheless, Rosamund Pike's performance as, well, a gone girl is really quite excellent. She starts out innocent and likable enough, but by the end of this film the viewer absolutely loathes her, with good reason. Her character is a psychopath that goes to insane lengths to get revenge on her husband (who admittedly is not the nicest guy) and in the end she manipulates the media and emerges victorious, trapping him in a marriage with her despite the fact that he knows how insane she is. Pike's portrayal of Amy Dunne as she runs away and transforms herself while executing a complex master plan that would end in her husband's wrongful execution for her murder is chilling. At the beginning of the film we have no idea what she is capable of, but she murders, lies and misleads others to achieve success in her plot. The dark, disturbing tone of the film coincides with her character perfectly to create an incredible enigma of a film. No one knows what's going on behind those eyes of hers, and she misdirects and manipulates the viewer of the film as well as the characters within it.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
This category is pretty much just as important as the lead acting awards if you ask me. To deliver a truly remarkable and memorable performance, an actor often needs to be surrounded by a cast of equally talented ones. That's why this award often goes to people who are great actors in their own right, and support the actor in the lead role they're working with. The actors nominated this year all did great jobs bringing out the brilliance of their leads. Onscreen chemistry goes a long way, and most of these actors had a high degree of it with the other ones in their films.
Winner: J.K Simmons (Whiplash)
I loved this movie. It's definitely one of my favourites of the year. On a less amazing Oscar season it would take home Best Picture easily. And J.K Simmons (whose first initials I just learned do not stand for "Just Kidding" after all) delivers a performance that is a huge part of that. He plays an obsessive, perfectionist jazz music teacher who uses extreme methods and pushes his student (a young jazz drummer played by Miles Teller) to the limit to get the very best out of him. He's abusive, cruel, and driven. This is a character that exists to create conflict and cause chaos in the life of the others. Simmons does this incredibly well. He spends half the movie screaming at Teller and the other half being a sarcastic jerk. He made me hate his character, but at the same time I loved how unpredictable and volatile he was, and respected his passion for creating great music and building a reputation for himself and his school. This film is very much about the student-teacher relationship and Simmons brings his character to vivid life and shows how dangerous yet effective a teacher can be when he leaves subtlety and empathy at the door.
Second Prediction: Edward Norton (Birdman)
HE'S SUCH A JERK BUT I LIKE HIM SO MUCH. WHY DO I LIKE HIM SO MUCH. Oh yes, Birdman again. I like it when actors play actors in films, it's often pretty hilarious. That's totally the case with Edward Norton in Birdman. I've always thought this guy was awesome, ever since I saw him in Fight Club at age 14 and he made me want to overthrow the government and beat people up. He's just really cool and likable in everything I've seen him in, I don't even know why. In this one he's a total dick who clashes with everyone and gets drunk on stage, he almost ruins everything for poor Michael Keaton but I love his character anyway. He's a destructive force that might blow everything up but might not, depending on the mood he's in. His unpredictability mixed with his insane amount of charisma and coolness makes him a joy to watch and one of the multitude of reasons I loved Birdman.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Same deal here. Supporting actresses are just as important as supporting actors. All of these actresses weren't starring in their films, but were still very crucial parts of them as a whole. I have to say here that I haven't seen Into the Woods so I don't know how good Meryl Streep is in it, but I'm sure she'll win anyway because she's Meryl Streep so my predictions are automatically wrong. Whatever, I'll make them anyway.
Winner: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
It's interesting considering any actor from this film for any award, because they filmed it over the course of 12 years so there's a natural aging process that occurs throughout the film. Patricia Arquette at the end of Boyhood is 12 years older than Patricia Arquette at the beginning of Boyhood. It's fascinating watching young Mason turn from a little kid to a grown adult in the film, but his parents age too. Arquette plays his mother who seems to fall in love with all the wrong men (irresponsible musicians, alcoholic teachers, authoritarian veterans etc) and often makes less than great life choices but is always a strong positive influence in his life. She goes back to college and becomes a teacher to provide better for her family, and throughout the film we see her go from being a relatively new mother with two young children to a middle age woman trying to figure out what more there is to life after her children leave the nest. As the one constant parent Mason has she plays a rather large role in the film, and is a very strong influence on his life. In this sense she is a crucial character to the entire film, and Arquette plays the mother at all stages in her child's development extremely well. She's very convincing throughout the entire length of the film.
Second Prediction: Laura Dern (Wild)
Another one from Wild. Laura Dern doesn't have a huge role in this movie, definitely not as large as Patricia Arquette's in Boyhood, but in her small amount of time on screen she shines, and leaves a lasting impression on the film. Dern plays the mother of the main character (the excellent Reese Witherspoon, mentioned above), a very positive person who always sees the silver lining in any situation. Regardless of how badly their lives are going she maintains a positive outlook on life and makes sacrifices for her children. When her children are negative and pessimistic she is bright and cheerful despite the circumstances, which sounds annoying but she is actually a complete ray of sunshine in a film that would be soul-crushingly depressing otherwise. She is always shown in flashback scenes, and her diagnosis with cancer and subsequent death is one of her daughter's main motivations to complete her journey. Her mother would never quit, so how can she? Even though she's not in the film for a huge amount of time, she is very memorable and has a profound effect on the protagonist.
Best Original Screenplay
I like this category because by definition it focuses on films that are not adapted from a novel or anything else. Films that are original creations independent of other media. There are always some great movies competing for this one, it's an award for auteurs and people with fresh, new ideas. I haven't seen Nightcrawler yet (unfortunately, it looks awesome) so it won't be on here regardless of whether it deserves to win or not.
Winner: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Yes, I know I'm calling this one for a lot. But with 9 nominations, I expect Birdman to win several on Sunday. As I mentioned before in my Best Picture predictions, I think Birdman is very culturally relevant. Its depictions of fame and celebrity culture make it a film that is incredibly relatable for people living in the present. Michael Keaton gets accidentally trapped outside in his underwear, Michael Keaton has to run down the streets of New York to get back to the theatre he's supposed to be performing in, Michael Keaton instantly becomes the star of a viral internet video. This is how it works today. You can do something funny and become famous in hours due to the internet. Birdman deconstructs fame and shows an actor's relationships with his daughter, estranged ex-wife, the public, and the people he's trying to work with to make a play and salvage his career. It's very intimately focused on the mind of the actor and the struggles he faces trying to remain relevant. I haven't seen that many films in recent years that tackle this, and even less that do it as well as Birdman, so I'm calling it for Best Original Screenplay.
Second Prediction: Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Surprised? This film has tons of nominations as well and this is the first time I've mentioned it in this post. Don't think I'm a Wes Anderson hater though, I'm far from it. The Life Aquatic is one of my favourite comedies and The Royal Tenenbaums brings me to tears almost every time. Anderson is good. He's not reinventing the wheel or fundamentally changing the way we view cinema, but his movies are smart, immaculately constructed and have an irresistible charm that makes them a joy to watch. Grand Budapest Hotel is no exception to this, it's a hilariously entertaining journey that chronicles the life of a kid who worked in a hotel and the chaos that ensues when a valuable painting is stolen. There's more to the story than that obviously, but the film is packed with Anderson's signature dry, witty humour and his gorgeous sets and elaborate camerawork. While not particularly deep, it's a tremendously entertaining film and Ralph Fiennes delivers a remarkable performance in the lead role.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Another note here, unfortunately I did not get a chance to see Inherent Vice. I love Paul Thomas Anderson (so, so much) and I'm sure it's amazing and very well might win this award but I can't predict a film I haven't seen so I won't be saying anything about it here. This category is also an interesting one because a massive amount of films (more than most people know) are adapted from novels and other media. Other forms of art being translated into film has been happening pretty much since the beginning, and there is a wide range of adaptations. Some are close, almost word-for-word adaptations of their source material (No Country For Old Men) and some just grab a few ideas from a novel and run with them (David Cronenberg's crazy but excellent Naked Lunch). Regardless, and cinema and other, older art forms have an interesting relationship, and there are always really good films competing for this award too.
Winner: Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Like I said before, I thought this was one of the best of the year. Whiplash was apparently adapted from director Damien Chazelle's own experiences of being in a jazz band. If you've seen this film, you know how messed up that is because the teacher in this film is insane and the abuse that the main character takes from him is definitely way over the line in any normal student-teacher relationship. I don't know how much of the film is direct experience of Chazelle's, but it's so vivid and well-written that it a lot of it very well could be. It's an intensely absorbing film that I think is going to be a dark horse this year at the awards show, it might surprise. We'll see.
Second Prediction: The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
This and the film above it have something in common. They were both on the Black List, an annual list made of the best screenplays that have not been produced for any reason. It's a really cool idea, and a lot of great movies come out of it. Some films are on the list because they're too crazy or offensive to be made, and some just don't get the financial backing they deserve. Well, I'm glad that someone picked this one up because it's a fantastic story that needed to be told. This year we got Fury, a WWII film about a bunch of American dudes in a tank blowing stuff up in Europe. This film takes place during the same war but is so much different. Not too many films have focused on the intellectual side of the war, and how important brilliant people like Alan Turing were to the Allied victory. I certainly never knew how crucial his work was until I saw this film and looked into his life a little bit more closely. The war was a battle of wits and intellect just as much (if not more) as it was a contest of military strength. I think this concept was what made this movie so great for me, watching Turing crack the German code and shorten the war, saving countless lives was simply amazing. I was far more engrossed in this movie than I have been in any recent war film.
Best Director
This is a huge one for me. Being a film student I talk a lot about directors and their importance to a film. Regardless of where you stand on the validity of auteur theory (I buy it for the most part), it's impossible to deny the director's influence on a project. This award goes to the director who creates the best film, and one that could not be as great as it is had he not directed it. Some of them are artists who have crafted a distinctive personal style over the years, and some are promising newcomers who have the potential to become great. This year most of them are already fairly experienced and accomplished, Linklater and Anderson especially are both well-known and critically acclaimed directors that have been active for a while. It's pretty competitive, but I think there's a clear frontrunner this year.
Winner: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Don't even pretend like you didn't see this one coming. In my mind it's the clear winner. An ambitious, 12 year long project like this deserves recognition. The film is almost three hours in length and with the amount of time they likely spent shooting sporadically year after year, I bet it was a lot of work finding the most meaningful parts and piecing them together into a coherent film that doesn't feel disjointed due to the length of its diegetic time. Linklater's camerawork is gorgeous, his actors give great performances, and his story is focused yet epic, massive but still very intimate and personal. Linklater is a director that has been on the brink of greatness for a long time and has finally crossed the line, I hope he gets the recognition he deserves this year.
Second Prediction: Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
You betcha. I won't leave it alone. Though this film's technical brilliance is undoubtedly the product of a group of individuals, and it would not be as great as it is without the fantastic performances delivered by its cast, Birdman is still exceptionally well put together, and Innaritu's steady direction keeps the film on track and makes sure it doesn't fall too far into absurdity. Co-writing, directing and producing the film means Innaritu had a lot of creative control and responsibility for what goes into this film, and the result is a well structured, entertaining film with thematic depth that is also very accessible and enjoyable.
Best Visual Effects
Last one. For the remainder of the awards I have either not seen the nominees or I don't know/care enough about the award itself to make a prediction. Interstellar will probably kill it in the technical awards like Gravity did last year, and Grand Budapest Hotel will likely take home more than a few as well due to the sheer number of nominations it has. Try as I did, I am a busy dude and it's unrealistic for me to see every single nominee for every single category (next year, maybe) so this post isn't as long as it could be. Which is cool because it's by far the longest one I've ever written for this blog and my fingers hurt so it's for the best. Anyways, CGI and robots and CGI robots and stuff.
Winner: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
This was my favourite summer blockbuster of the year and it's not getting any attention because of stupid Marvel. It pisses me off, this film has a remarkable story with a great emotional core and no one ever talks about it but I sure hear a lot about which superhero movies are going to be released in 2019. Anyways, the CGI in this film is pretty perfect. The apes are gorgeously animated and incredibly realistic. Caesar is a fascinating character given life by Andy Serkis' sublime work in a motion capture suit. All the effects are so unobtrusive, I found it very easy to forget that the apes are all just computer generated images and not real animals. To me that's what makes great visual effects, the fact that they can make you forget that they're visual effects and integrate them seamlessly into the film. Dawn succeeds at that and pretty much everything else it attempts, and that's one of the many reasons I love it.
Secondary Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy
I complain a lot about Marvel and how they're flooding the movie market with derivative, weakly written superhero movies that pander to audiences and spawn endless sequels, and these complaints are legitimate because 90% of the superhero movies they come out with are mediocre at best. That's another rant for another day though. I saw Guardians thinking it would suck but I was totally proven wrong. It's an entertaining special effects extravaganza with great on-screen chemistry between the leads, a fantastic, groovy soundtrack, humour that works surprisingly well and an above average plot for the genre. It's a ton of fun to watch and visually it's pretty gorgeous so I would be cool with it winning this award.
Well, that's it. I'm done. Time to wait until Sunday when the awards air and subsequently drink myself to death after American Sniper wins all its nominations. CURSE YOU CLINT EASTWOOD YOUR MOVIE SUCKS
MAKE ANOTHER WESTERN YOU CRAZY OLD FART
